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  • jung.lee
    04-05 06:07 PM
    The analysis is interesting, but this much amount has already been written off considering 100% of option ARM, and alt-ARM will fail.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.




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  • heywhat
    08-02 01:09 PM
    So are you not working for company which is processing your GC application?

    My case is intent-to-hire for 485, so my attorney just took 3 paystubs and 1 w2 for filing. Is that ok?




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  • sledge_hammer
    06-08 10:44 AM
    There you go - "inflation"! This is another reason why investing in a house makes so much sense (iff your gc/job etc are sorted out).

    Let's say you buy a house today for $300,000, and you're paying $2,000 towards your monthly mortgage. Even if you don't build too much equity on it because of the falling real estate, you will STILL come out better because inflation will make sure that your monthly payments of $2,000 in 2019 will really become $1,500 in today's money.

    But if you continue to rent, you will pay let's say $2,000 today in rent, and 10 years from now you'll be paying $2,500, and you don't have a home to call your own!!!

    During times of inflation, commodities, home, etc are the winners.

    Thread gets more interesting...way of life..love the way it transformed from home buying good/bad to sound investment advice...here is my bit:

    With all the $$ spending by government, inflation is inevitable. FED can try to fight it by increasing interest rates, but that will open another box of worms. In a hurry now and will post a detailed discussion later about interest rates, fed and inflation..very interesting indeed

    my take is gold...solid investment in these times and a proven hedge against inflation

    goodluck guys..more later




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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 05:39 PM
    Modi is the need of the hour andnot Gandhi....Grow up man.

    Exactly. Hamas was the need of the hour for Palestinians and that why they choose their government. We may call them terrorists, but they are their legitimate government. People always chose leaders who fight for their right. Now you brand them terrorist and that will give you free hand to kill them and their people. Thats what happening. Isreal doesn't want anyone to stand up to their aggression. At the end, its poor people and children who get killed.



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  • hiralal
    06-07 09:38 PM
    Chances of loosing right now, is very slim, since everything is lost and if you still have a good healthy job, chances are you would have it, and if you have backup like double income, you are running in no probability zone.

    After your i485 gets denied, I am assuming you can file MTR and wait for it. More senior members may throw light but I am guessing you would have 2-3 months time to leave the country.
    . o.k. Thanks. I don't understand why chances of losing are slim ?
    it is not high but it is not slim either for those on EAD / H1. majority of jobs posted ask for GC. H1 is in complete mess if you talk to any immi lawyer (I have a friend who is lawyer and I heard the same from a lawyer on desi radio).
    buying one house may still be o.k. ...buying 2 - 3 houses to put it on rent is absolute nightmare ..my friend tried that too (he too believed earlier that land is best asset) ... the renter stopped paying rent and he had trouble in evicting him ..on top of it the renter painted the rooms in wierd colors ...also how do you chechk how many people are staying in the house that you give on rent ..it is messy all way around ..if you really believe in land then better to buy some REITS (that is in mess too right now). luckily I had economics in my final year in engg college and the first and the fundamental equation is relation between supply and demand.
    in this country land is in huge huge supply (just look around) and families are getting smaller and green cards is given to 60 year old's (who just leave).
    credit is tight and will be for a long long time ..baby boomers will start selling their homes once prices stop falling ...so supply is massive and less demand ..




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  • axp817
    03-27 03:44 PM
    ok..My docs have been received by AO.



    AO? Adjudicating officer?

    Good luck, keep us posted.



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-29 09:03 PM
    Dog Philosophy

    � The reason a dog has so many friends is that he wags his tail instead of his tongue. - Anonymous

    � Don't accept your dog's admiration as conclusive evidence that you are wonderful. - Ann Landers

    � The average dog is a nicer person than the average person. - Andy Rooney

    � Dogs love their friends and bite their enemies, quite unlike people, who are incapable of pure love and always have to mix love and hate. - Sigmund Freud

    � Ever consider what our dogs must think of us? I mean, here we come back from a grocery store with the most amazing haul - - chicken, pork, half a cow. They must think we're the greatest hunters on earth! - Anne Tyler

    � If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you; that is the principal difference between a dog and a man. - Mark Twain

    � If you think dogs can't count, try putting three dog biscuits in your pocket and then give him only two of them. - Phil Pastoret




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  • Pineapple
    11-09 02:20 PM
    Not to split hairs, but I do not think Lou Dobbs is really "Republican" as far as the core political philosophy of GOP goes, and the same goes for Tancerdo et all. All are extremist nuts and never had any mainstream following. But there is a difference: Forget the fact that he is a pathetic opportunist who switched from financial analysis to immigrant bashing simply because the latter generated more ratings than the former. He positions himself as a anti-globalization nativist, and would find more sympathizers in the loony left rather than the loony right. Tancerdo etc are thinly disguised white-supremacists / nativists and their natural base is the far far right Ku Klux Klan nuts.

    In any case, there is nothing special about this election which teaches us to ignore the idiots. Most americans are distinctly uncomfortable with the rants of these guys and therefore Lou dobbs would always remain irrelevant. The world moves not because Lou says it does.. it moves regardless.



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  • delax
    07-13 12:13 PM
    I agree with that...spillover should have a releif to highly retrogressed also.Common 2001 EB3 is still hanging when will we get our solution.EAD is not a GC.This not relief.I understand unity is required here ,but how aboutEB3
    .Even we need required justice.
    Atleast we can address the problem.

    At the risk of differing with you and inviting unflattering comments from others, but to benefit a healthy debate, I beg to differ that spill over should go to the most retrogressed at the expense of a difference in skill, training and experience level. As you probably may know, EB2 does require a different and arguably more enhanced skill, traninig and experience level than EB3.

    If you beleive in the principle that in a land of meritocracy the higher skilled should have an easier path to immigrate then EB2 should always get a preference over EB3 regardless of country of birth so long as the ROW demand within the same category has been satisfied.

    Understand, that this definition of EB3 and EB2 is all on paper. I am not saying that all EB2 are 'smarter' than EB3 and vice versa, but the letter/intent of the law is what it is.

    Sounds harsh and heirarchical but is true. Obviously I have a vested interest in a favorable interpretation of the law and I welcome the spill over to EB2-I. This does have a flip side if you are EB3-I, but look at a few bulletins from last year/early this year where EB2-I was unavailable and EB3 still was current and/or had a cut off date for a ROW/retro country.




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  • Madhuri
    05-16 08:27 PM
    Who knows what bills congress is going pass and not . I would rather live with status quo rather than things getting worse for me . They dont even let me file for 485 because of per country limits etc.....
    I second that. I don't want to find myself in biggermess after all this is over.


    I am talking about people whose permanent labors are approved but they can not get green card for whateever reason. My labor application for future job was applied 3 yeags ago in the past As per my employer job was available 3 years ago and government took its own time to adjudicate the application. Does my last statement sound illogical? Your analysis is same , I mean illogical .

    Who knows what bills congress is going pass and not . I would rather live with status quo rather than things getting worse for me . They dont even let me file for 485 because of per country limits etc...



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  • bhatt
    06-07 02:03 PM
    I noticed that the $8k and $10k for California (which began in March 09) stimulus is taken by builders for their benefit. How did they do it?

    When I bought a house in March 09, the builder offered me great discounts (20k off the purchase price, interest buy down to 4.5%) and freebies (fridge, blinds, washer/dyer) so I took it. I bought the house for less than $90 per sq. ft.

    After the $8k Fed. and $10k California stimulus have passed, builders use that as their sales pitch to attract buyers and removed their previously offered discounts (some still offers discount though but offset the stimulus benefits).

    So, I believe that the builders/sellers are the real winner in the stimulus, not the buyers.

    Exactly, The realtors and the banks are too the beneficiaries for the 8k, not the buyers.
    So don't buy the house for the sake of 8k. and Don't buy the home as an investment!




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  • sledge_hammer
    12-24 12:00 PM
    You, being an Indian by nationality, hate India so much and I can only imagine what a Pakistani terrorist would think! You were born in India, got your education from there, have friends and family there, but still, in a heart beat, side with the terrorists that kill innocent Indians.

    I've heard this numerous times and I now know it for a fact - Muslims love their religion more than the country. It is, now even more clear, who MOST Indian muslims will side with in case of a dispute between India and Pakistan.

    How old is the technique of discrediting my links to win the argument. Of course, if I tell you of all the atrocities of Indian army in Kashmir, or punjab, or assam, to you I am a muslim, and my default I hate India. Of course, it wouldn't matter if good old amnesty internationl would raise a red flag against india...
    http://www.amnesty.org/en/appeals-for-action/thousands-lost-kashmir-mass-graves

    wait they have raised a red flag a million times, anybody paying attention, or just shaking head in disbelief?
    or you do not want to loose your right to dance on murder of muslims had it not been a country like India where Modis, advanis, uma bhartis can roam freely....
    ...oh wait, but India also denies any trials against in military in Kashmir, so they can do what they want, and never be challenged in court of law, and amnesty's report goes to garbage, because this is Hindu india, and minorities like Sikhs, Bodos, muslims, dalits, dravidians will have to put up with their hegemony...

    ... and yes, if somebody losses his mind because his home has been bulldozed by indian army, or women raped and murdered ... he will be branded terrorist and shot.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6074994.stm

    ... but of course this is a rambling of muslim, and all muslims are terrorists, and all hindus are protector of bharat mata, so when a hindu kills a muslim, he kills a terrorist, but if a muslim rebels in lack of justice and equality, he is a terrorist.... it's a fair game!



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  • reedandbamboo
    10-01 09:15 PM
    With all the uncertainties shrouding legal employment-based immigration reform (accompanied by talk of CIR) I've been looking into other high-skilled-immigrant-friendly countries.

    Canada is starting to seem a far friendlier place for folks like us - relatively short wait times in the application queue, with no country-based quotas discriminating against applicants from countries like India and China.




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  • unitednations
    03-24 11:55 AM
    Can you please elaborate?

    I may be understanding this incorrectly, but are they denying our right to be represented by a lawyer?

    No; I am saying I am suspicious of original poster because when in local USCIS offices they swear you in that you are going to tell the truth and if you don't have a lawyer with you then they make you sign a statement that you are self representing yourself at the itnerview.

    Because of these formalities; I have my doubts with a Phone call received from the local office and asking for documnets, questions on some very substantive matters without going through the formalities that local uscis office is supposed to do.

    - I went to two local uscis office interviews; so I am pretty versed in their procedure.



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  • gc03
    05-17 10:56 AM
    Wouldn't it have been nice as well for this president to suggest that the U.S. government would also take seriously its responsibilities to create a new and efficient immigration system to accommodate the backlog of millions of people trying to do the right thing? The same agency that would have to oversee Mr. Bush's amnesty program could not begin to do so because the Citizenship and Immigration Services already faces a backlog of millions of people who are trying to enter this country lawfully.

    Read on full (http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/05/17/dobbs.bushspeech/index.html?section=cnn_topstories)

    Should we thank CNN Writer Lou Dobbs?




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  • srkamath
    07-13 05:59 PM
    Agreed.....the categories were made for a reasson.....and the same logic is being followed by the DOS to spillover unused VISAS. While I understand the frustration of EB3 folks, I would encourage those same folks to folllow IVs initatives - call campaigns for House bils...
    While I fear this will create an offshoot EB3 group within IV, I hope that goos senses will prevail.

    FYI - EB2 is still retrogressed over 2 years.....it is not that it is current

    EB1 EB2 EB3 are "preference" categories established by a law. This letter seems to be demanding that the DOS ignore the "preference" - Sorry it won't work.

    Elsewhere in this forum someone has another letter campaign directed at visa re-capture legislation. That might have some influence.



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  • senthil1
    11-15 07:16 AM
    Aggressive increase of H1 will increase immigration and drive down the wages. That already happened after Dot com burst. Thousands of H1 people went back to India at that time and many people lost jobs. It was very tough to get the job beween 2000 to 2003. I think moderate increase of H1 is fine. But Skill bill gives market based increase every year and exemptions. This does not have American peple support. Actually Companies are trying to kill the hot job market in IT now. In reality Top 20 Indian companies does not have any problem in bringing people as they are using L1. Only American companies like Intel Microsoft may have a problem in getting people. Also Lot of Desi consulting companies rushing at the time of April and applying so many h1s to avoid caps. Anyone is not sure whether that is used or not. They are bringing people gradually and might not use some of h1s. Because of this lot of genuine companies cannot use h1s. They have to regulate h1s before increasing. I am sure even if they increase 200k H1 it will not be enough as so many people are waiting in India. Thats why they are asking market based increase every year and exemptions. Infact if they do this current h1 people will the imapct in another 2 years. There is no point if you have a gc but you will not be having a job. Since democrats win I won't be surprised that Skill may be passed in current form. But election result does not favor or oppose immigration. Generally American public does not care about immigration as other issues are more important for them.
    Moderate increase of GC( may be 300 to 400k) coupled with 120k h1s will give releif to everyone for next 5 to 10 years. As everyone knows companies are strongly lobbying for H1s but not Gcs though they are supporting. Companies will be happy if h1 is increased.




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  • StuckInTheMuck
    08-08 04:40 PM
    Two alligators are sitting on the edge of a swamp. The small one turns to the big one and says, "I don't understand how you can be so much bigger than me. We're the same age, we were the same size as kids. I just don't get it."

    "Well," says the big alligator, "What have you been eating?"

    "Immigration attorneys, same as you," replies the small alligator.

    "Hm. Well, where do you catch 'em?"

    "Down at that law firm on the edge of the swamp."

    "Same here. Hm. How do you catch 'em?"

    "Well, I crawl under a BMW and wait for someone to unlock the door. Then I jump out, bite 'em, shake the crap out of 'em, and eat 'em!"

    "Ah!" says the big alligator, "I think I see your problem. See, by the time you get done shakin' the crap out of an immigration lawyer, there's nothin' left but lips and a briefcase."




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  • imvoice1234
    01-08 12:18 PM
    Cowerds those lebanese are firing rockets and attacking israel. When 2 countries are fighting. Lebonon is firing rockets. Cowerds!
    Now the killing has gone mad. Apart from killing the innocent civilians, crazy war mongers started bombing schools and killing innocent school kids. Today two schools were bombed and more than 40 children have been massacred.

    Its sad to see school children being brutally killed by missles and tanks. I don't understand how people could blow up innocent kids, women and men under the name of self-defence?

    This world has gone crazy and there's no one questioning about this in-human atrocities committed against fellow human being.

    Lets us pray for those who are going thru this hardship, and for an immediate end to this war crime.

    How many more innocent civilians including children they are planning to kill?. All these so called peace loving nations blocking the UN from making a cease-fire resolution. Looks like so called freedom lovers want more innocent lives.

    When Mumbai was attacked by terrorists, whole world was united and supported the victim(India). Now the same world is against the victim and encouraging more killing by not stopping the attrocities.




    cherupally
    07-17 01:27 PM
    Thanks a bunch for the replies UN..

    I have a quick Question in G-325A form about the previous addresses in last 5 yrs.. My credit history addresses do not match my paystub addresses.. So, which addresses do I need to put in this form.. Paystub addresses or Credit history addresses.. Will INS ask for proof of past addresses? I am confused.. Pls help..

    Thanks a lot...




    gccovet
    08-07 03:40 PM
    Political Science for Dummies



    DEMOCRAT
    You have two cows.
    Your neighbor has none.
    You feel guilty for being successful.

    You push for higher taxes so the government can provide cows for everyone.

    REPUBLICAN
    You have two cows.
    Your neighbor has none.
    So?

    SOCIALIST
    You have two cows.
    The government takes one and gives it to your neighbor.
    You form a cooperative to tell him how to manage his cow.

    COMMUNIST
    You have two cows.
    The government seizes both and provides you with milk.
    You wait in line for hours to get it.
    It is expensive and sour.

    CAPITALISM, AMERICAN STYLE
    You have two cows.
    You sell one, buy a bull, and build a herd of cows.

    BUREAUCRACY, AMERICAN STYLE
    You have two cows.
    Under the new farm program the government pays you to shoot one, milk the other, and then pours the milk down the drain.

    AMERICAN CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    You sell one, lease it back to yourself and do an IPO on the 2nd one.
    You force the two cows to produce the milk of four cows. You are surprised when one cow drops dead. You spin an announcement to the analysts stating you have downsized and are reducing expenses.
    Your stock goes up.

    FRENCH CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    You go on strike because you want three cows.
    You go to lunch and drink wine.
    Life is good.

    JAPANESE CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk.
    They learn to travel on unbelievably crowded trains.
    Most are at the top of their class at cow school.

    GERMAN CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    You engineer them so they are all blond, drink lots of beer, give excellent quality milk, and run a hundred miles an hour.
    Unfortunately they also demand 13 weeks of vacation per year.

    ITALIAN CORPORATION
    You have two cows but you don't know where they are.
    You break for lunch.
    Life is good.

    RUSSIAN CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    You have some vodka.
    You count them and learn you have five cows.
    You have some more vodka.
    You count them again and learn you have 42 cows.
    The Mafia shows up and takes over however many cows you really have.

    TALIBAN CORPORATION
    You have all the cows in Afghanistan , which are two.
    You don't milk them because you cannot touch any creature's private parts.
    You get a $40 million grant from the US government to find alternatives to milk production but use the money to buy weapons.

    IRAQI CORPORATION
    You have two cows.
    They go into hiding.
    They send radio tapes of their mooing.

    POLISH CORPORATION
    You have two bulls.
    Employees are regularly maimed and killed attempting to milk them.

    BELGIAN CORPORATION
    You have one cow.
    The cow is schizophrenic.
    Sometimes the cow thinks he's French, other times he's Flemish.
    The Flemish cow won't share with the French cow.
    The French cow wants control of the Flemish cow's milk.
    The cow asks permission to be cut in half.
    The cow dies happy.

    FLORIDA CORPORATION
    You have a black cow and a brown cow.
    Everyone votes for the best looking one.
    Some of the people who actually like the brown one best accidentally vote for the black one.
    Some people vote for both.
    Some people vote for neither.
    Some people can't figure out how to vote at all.
    Finally, a bunch of guys from out-of-state tell you which one you think is the best-looking cow.

    CALIFORNIA CORPORATION
    You have millions of cows.
    They make real California cheese.
    Only five speak English.
    Most are illegal.
    Arnold likes the ones with the big udders.



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